Banana Pundits

Daniel Gallas: After months of suspense and substantial losses in opinion polls, the Brazil’s social-democrats have finally agreed on who will be the anti-Lula in the October election. Although São Paulo’s mayor José Serra – ex-president Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s choice – fared better in the polls, he gave up on his candidacy. His decision was announced this week, after a long battle against São Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin, who surprisingly one the nomination. It is now Mr. Alckmin’s responsibility to unite his party and bring the PSDB back to power.

Before his tenacious victory against Mr. Serra, Mr. Alckmin was mocked by many due to his discretion and uncharismatic nature. Revista Veja, Brazil’s leading weekly magazine, nicknamed him “the chayote popsicle”, saying that his ideas and his appeal to the electorate are as tasteless as the popular Brazilian vegetable. Journalist José Paulo Kupfer gives us a taste of the economic flavor of the Chayote Popsicle, in a review published by the Brazilian website No Mínimo.

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Daniel Gallas: While the nation is getting ready for the sizzling carnival season, beginning next week, and a gigantic Rolling Stones concert (more than 1.5 million fans are expected in the sands of Copacabana beach), politicians are laying down the blueprint for October’s elections.

Up until now, Mr. Lula’s chances of reelection were a national conundrum. His party has been damaged by an unprecedented corruption scandal. His approval rates hit rock bottom last November. However, a new poll announced today, indicates that Mr. Lula is back in the lead. The unexpected results shift all pressure from president Lula’s shoulder to the opposition party, that has to pick a contestant between São Paulo’s mayor José Serra and São Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin.

Josias de Souza, one of Brazil’s leading political journalists, analyzes the numbers and the new scenario in his blog.

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Solon Brochado: As if he didn’t have his hands full, Lula now has to deal with dissent in his own ranks. It seems to be only another episode in the historical divide between left-leaning petistas and moderate ones. Those on the left side of the party, commonly referred to as shiites, have never been very pleased with the economical orthodoxy of Treasury minister Antonio Palocci, but have never been able to touch him due to the country’s most solid numbers in decades.

But now, Palocci has been weakened by evidences of corruption during his term as mayor of Ribeirão Preto, that were raised in the CPIs. It was the opportunity shiites were looking for. Dilma Roussef, the Chief of Staff, has been very critical of the minister of late, never missing a chance to state her opinions in newspapers or during political meetings. Palocci, while apparently ready to step down if the president deems necessary, is also using the media to defend himself.

The situation has come to a point when Lula had to call both ministers and tell them to, basically, shut up and help the party and the government get out of the current crisis, instead of giving fodder to the opposition, which has been more than happy to help undermine Palocci’s stand. It is amazing that, after all this time, petistas still approach the government from a student politics standpoint.

Below, an op-ed by Kennedy Alencar, Folha de S. Paulo’s special reporter in Brasília, and their main political commentator.

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Solon Brochado: It’s a good thing this blog doesn’t have that many readers, for I’ll present my proverbial stupidity for all to see. As promised on the last couple of posts, this would be the time where I’d post the translation of a piece by Villas-Bôas Corrêa on Lula’s Roda Viva interview. It turns out that NoMínimo, who publishes Corrêa’s work, uses dynamic links for their content. So, the link for Corrêa’s articles will always lead you to his latest column. To read past works, you have to use a drop down menu on the right.

Unfortunately, I only realized that when I was two paragraphs short of translating his latest op-ed (and now I realize this link will lead to a different article next week), dealing with Lula’s alleged condemnation of reelections. I thought of waiting to put it aside, and only post it after some more things regarding the president’s interview. But translating Corrêa’s prose is not such an easy task, and to postpone posting it would seem like the time I spent translating was wasted. So, I decided to post it and let you all know what an idiot I am. But I promise I’ll go back to the interview in upcoming posts.

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Solon Brochado: To start our doubleheader on the president’s interview last monday, I have translated Guilherme Fiuza’s op-ed, that says the president was adamant in denying what everyone knows is the truth. And in doing that, he continued to not talk to the press, just repeating tired lines as if he was making a public adress.

The return of the demi-God

The mensalão doesn’t exist. End of story. It was president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva who said that, during his interview to the “Roda Viva” show. And Lula’s truths, possibly due to some divine gift, have the power to hover over facts, intact, indisputable. You can’t, therefore, argue with such a guy. Lula has won.

It doesn’t matter that an account from Marcos Valério’s SMP&B agency at the Banco Rural has supplied politicians from several parties, including the PT, with withdrawals throughout various months in a sum that totals over 20 million reais, all verified, even leading to some congressmen’s resignations, inclunding PT’s former leader Paulo Rocha, and the opening of some others’ impeachment processes, including former president of the Chamber, João Paulo Cunha, also from the PT. Lula has the mysterious gift of keeping at large from confronting the facts. If he speaks, it is said and done. The mensalão doesn’t exist, end of story.

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Solon Brochado: The opposition seems to have received the Veja magazine piece, detailing how Cuba allegedly invested US$ 3 million in Lula’s campaign, as political currency. As PT congressmen lean toward not asking for Eduardo Azeredo’s annulment, the opposition is asking for a thorough investigation on the Lula-Fidel relation, but is treating the issue with caution.

Meanwhile, with the Mensalão’s CPI coming to its grand finale, the media hasn’t paid much attention to the Castrodollars case. But this op-ed by Gilberto Dimenstein hits all the right spots on the troubling historical connections between the Workers’ Party and Fidel’s Cuba.

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Solon Brochado: Rio de Janeiro has a history of Public Security secretaries who’re great at delivering speeches, or writing essays on social problems, but who are incapable of turning all that academic knowledge into results. Over at NoMínimo, Guilherme Fiuza is not very happy with the last in this lineage of fine men, mr. Marcelo Itagiba.

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Solon Brochado: It was published right after the referendum’s official result, but I couldn’t get to translate it before. NoMínimo’s Villas-Bôas Corrêa has an interesting article on the general meaninglessness of this consultation, as is evident from the lack of actual legislative response to its result. He also makes some good points with regards to pork-spending with daily expenses for public servant’s trips abroad.

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Solon Brochado: At NoMínimo, Marcos Sá Corrêa paints a very grim picture of the country’s future after the referendum. And it has nothing to do with guns or public safety. By far, the best piece of analysis I’ve read so far, and one that makes me uneasy as to the future of our country.

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Cisco Costa: Writing in the Folha de São Paulo, one of Brazil’s largest newspapers and arguably its most respected and influential one, Clarice Spitz reports that marketing was key for the “no” victory:

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