Daniel Gallas: While the nation is getting ready for the sizzling carnival season, beginning next week, and a gigantic Rolling Stones concert (more than 1.5 million fans are expected in the sands of Copacabana beach), politicians are laying down the blueprint for October’s elections.

Up until now, Mr. Lula’s chances of reelection were a national conundrum. His party has been damaged by an unprecedented corruption scandal. His approval rates hit rock bottom last November. However, a new poll announced today, indicates that Mr. Lula is back in the lead. The unexpected results shift all pressure from president Lula’s shoulder to the opposition party, that has to pick a contestant between São Paulo’s mayor José Serra and São Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin.

Josias de Souza, one of Brazil’s leading political journalists, analyzes the numbers and the new scenario in his blog.

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